Changing Nature of Warfare

Brigadier General (retired) Blaine D. Holt, currently the President of Million Air Inc., an aerospace company based in Houston, Texas participates in Risk Roundup with Jayshree Pandya to discuss the “Changing Nature of Warfare”.   Introduction The digital global age has heralded both beginnings and ends. Nations today stand on the verge of the most transformative period in all of human history as information, communication and digitization technology, genetics, nanotechnology, robotics, biotechnology and artificial intelligence merge and converge to make the once impossible imagination, possible. It is not only human and non-human (i.e. machine) intelligence that is merging and creating unthinkable possibilities: the blurring boundaries between cyberspace, geospace and space (CGS) as well as nations: its government, industries, organizations, academia and individuals (NGIOA-I) will fundamentally transform everything around us. The pace of technological change coming our way is so rapid, its impact so deep, that each NGIOA, individually and collectively: its expectations and experiences, are and will be irreversibly transformed. This will undoubtedly change the whole global dynamics, security and power structure in CGS. The changes are under way and they are very rapid! As nations witness the end of its governments, industries, organizations, academia and individuals living in isolation and the beginning of an interconnected NGIOA world and interdependent global economy that has moved beyond geospace, and is now vehemently contesting the commons like cyberspace and space, it is not only the battlefield that has expanded from geospace to cyberspace-geospace and space (CGS), it has fundamentally changed how nations fight wars. While the essential goals of warfare have not changed since the beginning of times, over the years the way wars are fought within, between and across nations certainly have. Because nations witness widespread impact of technology across its government, industries, organizations and academia (NGIOA), it is important to understand and evaluate how the wars are fought not only today but also in the coming tomorrow, who will fight the wars — and what rules will govern the conduct of warfare in CGS. Since technology always drives the transformational change in the warfare, the number of individuals, groups, nation/state engaged in this new warfare in cyberspace is complicating the very dynamics of it. So the question is: * How are nations preparing themselves for this changing nature of warfare? * How is the introduction of not only cyber weapons, but bio-weapons, nano-weapons—along with human and non-human intelligence and methods changing warfare strategy towards defense, offense and warfare? Current and Emerging Technologies When we evaluate the current and emerging technologies: information, communication, digitization technologies and artificial intelligence, robotics, nanotechnology, biotechnology and many other advances in science and technology that has allowed nations the scientific manufacture of life, the production of drones, the reality of mass surveillance technologies, space weapons, nano-weapons, cyber weapons, bio-weapons and autonomous un-manned systems of all sorts that are fundamentally transforming the definition and nature of warfare in cyberspace, geospace and space (CGS). The reality of the democratization of mass violence, and the enabling of individuals, groups and non-state actors across nations to use and threaten destructive force in cyberspace and through cyberspace on a scale previously associated only with nation/states is a cause of serious concern. It is important that each nation evaluates: * What is its impact? * How will the current and emerging technologies impa...